Goto

Collaborating Authors

 accident year


BayesBlend: Easy Model Blending using Pseudo-Bayesian Model Averaging, Stacking and Hierarchical Stacking in Python

Haines, Nathaniel, Goold, Conor

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Averaging predictions from multiple competing inferential models frequently outperforms predictions from any single model, providing that models are optimally weighted to maximize predictive performance. This is particularly the case in so-called $\mathcal{M}$-open settings where the true model is not in the set of candidate models, and may be neither mathematically reifiable nor known precisely. This practice of model averaging has a rich history in statistics and machine learning, and there are currently a number of methods to estimate the weights for constructing model-averaged predictive distributions. Nonetheless, there are few existing software packages that can estimate model weights from the full variety of methods available, and none that blend model predictions into a coherent predictive distribution according to the estimated weights. In this paper, we introduce the BayesBlend Python package, which provides a user-friendly programming interface to estimate weights and blend multiple (Bayesian) models' predictive distributions. BayesBlend implements pseudo-Bayesian model averaging, stacking and, uniquely, hierarchical Bayesian stacking to estimate model weights. We demonstrate the usage of BayesBlend with examples of insurance loss modeling.


EMC Insurance's (EMCI) CEO Bruce Kelley on Q1 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

#artificialintelligence

All participants will be in listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Walsh, Director of Investor Relations. A copy of the news release is available on the Investor Relations page of our website, which can be found at investors.emcins.com. The archived audio webcast will be available for replay for approximately 90 days following the earnings call. This presentation includes some forward-looking statements about our expectations for our future performance. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments today due to a variety of factors. Additional information about factors that could affect future results is addressed in our SEC filings, including Forms S-1, 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K.